BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Bluebird In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Western Bluebird in Great Basin has surged: up 908% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+908%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Western Bluebird in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Western Bluebird In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 99% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.47–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+99%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Bluebird in Great Basin is projected to rise about 99% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.47–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.430.91
20270.680.440.92
20280.690.450.93
20290.700.460.94
20300.710.470.95

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Western Bluebird in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EllensburgWASHINGTON212025
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA201974
PomeroyWASHINGTON192024
Carson RiverNEVADA132002
Iron GateCALIFORNIA92019
EightmileOREGON91991
HackamoreCALIFORNIA62010
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA62011
Jericho JunctionUTAH61997
SistersOREGON52025
Ewan 2WASHINGTON52025
TionestaCALIFORNIA42021
GiffordIDAHO42016
JoelIDAHO42024
ZumwaltOREGON42005
NewcastleUTAH42022
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON42025
SelahWASHINGTON42012
MacdoelCALIFORNIA32019
MadelineCALIFORNIA32021
Davis LakeOREGON32013
Pine CreekUTAH32025
Turnbull NwrWASHINGTON32023
BodieCALIFORNIA22010
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.