BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Warbling Vireo In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+296%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Warbling Vireo In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.0–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 4.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.0–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.03.76.2
20275.03.86.2
20285.13.96.3
20295.13.96.3
20305.24.06.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OkleeMINNESOTA272021
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA272025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA222025
MidwayNEBRASKA182025
FairmontMINNESOTA152025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA152019
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA142025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA142025
WorthingtonMINNESOTA122025
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA112017
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA112025
AppletonMINNESOTA102025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA102023
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA102025
TracyMINNESOTA92025
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA92021
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
TildenNEBRASKA82025
PantherIOWA72025
BeltramiMINNESOTA72025
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
LockhartMINNESOTA72025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA72025
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA72025
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.