BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Warbling Vireo In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Warbling Vireo in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 308% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+308%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Warbling Vireo has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 308% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Warbling Vireo In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.0–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Warbling Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 4.0–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.93.76.2
20265.03.86.2
20275.13.86.3
20285.13.96.3
20295.24.06.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Warbling Vireo in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA292024
OkleeMINNESOTA272021
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA222024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA192024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA192024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA172024
MidwayNEBRASKA162023
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA152019
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA142024
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA112017
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA102024
TracyMINNESOTA92024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA92021
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA92023
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA82024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA82022
MccallsburgIOWA72024
ChokioMINNESOTA72024
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
FairmontMINNESOTA72023
TildenNEBRASKA72024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA72024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.