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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Violet-green Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in Texas has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-55%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Violet-green Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Violet-green Swallow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Violet-green Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±304.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±304.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±304.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.030.000.10
20230.030.000.10
20240.030.000.10
20250.030.000.10
20260.030.000.10

Violet-green Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hot Springs320001974
Marfa220052005
Ft. Davis220212021
Slaughter119761976
Salt Flat120092005
Altuda119941994
Valentine119801975
Delaware Crk120142014
Cornudas119681968
Bear Mtn120161989

Violet-green Swallow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.