BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Violet-green Swallow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Violet-green Swallow in New Mexico has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Violet-green Swallow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Violet-green Swallow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Violet-green Swallow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Violet-green Swallow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.90.008.0
20273.80.008.0
20283.80.007.9
20293.80.007.9
20303.80.007.9

Violet-green Swallow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Violet-green Swallow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maxwell29319971997
Red Rock10520252001
Gallinas3020251992
Angel Fire 22520252005
Cloudcroft2320251975
Vallecitos2120251994
Bluewater Lake1920211999
Ojo Sarco1420251968
Angel Fire1220021992
Columbus1020252025
Dulce920252001
Mt. Taylor920121993
Mt. Taylor 2820242014
Aztec819891989
Shiprock620151996
Horse Mtn520231968
Reserve520251993
Emory Pass520251993
Fence Lake420251975
Carrizozo420251968
Quemado419971997
Corona East419931993
La Cienega319831969
Capitan Mtn.320151993
Sanostee320252025

Violet-green Swallow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.