BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Vaux's Swift In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Vaux's Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Vaux's Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Vaux's Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Vaux's Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.001.4
20260.560.001.4
20270.540.001.4
20280.530.001.4
20290.520.001.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Vaux's Swift in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redwood N.P. 2CALIFORNIA222013
WinberryOREGON192000
CougarWASHINGTON112023
McchordWASHINGTON102008
PetersburgALASKA91987
Martins FyCALIFORNIA72008
PackwoodWASHINGTON72022
MukilteoWASHINGTON62023
CarnationWASHINGTON62018
DerbyOREGON51993
Mt St HelensWASHINGTON52024
Raymond 2WASHINGTON52022
JuneauALASKA42014
DaytonOREGON42024
GarfieldOREGON42019
ElktonOREGON42023
Blue RiverOREGON42013
Sandy RiverOREGON42004
MolallaOREGON42019
Bull RunOREGON42024
GreenwaterWASHINGTON42022
Chichagof IsALASKA32016
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA32017
Rio DellCALIFORNIA32006
ShellrockOREGON32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.