BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.010.000.03
20230.010.000.03
20240.010.000.03
20250.010.000.03
20260.000.000.03

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WrefordKANSAS31974
Le LoupKANSAS22007
Ash CreekMINNESOTA22017
GazaIOWA12002
GalesburgKANSAS11970
HumboldtKANSAS12013
OlatheKANSAS11990
DoverKANSAS12021
BarclayKANSAS11968
EllinorKANSAS12011
Rock CreekKANSAS11973
SenecaKANSAS11976
ReeceKANSAS12018
Trading PostKANSAS12014
LincolnvilleKANSAS12009
LakevilleMINNESOTA11982
NorborneMISSOURI12018
WatsonMISSOURI12016
ThurstonNEBRASKA11980
PeoriaOKLAHOMA12015
WelchOKLAHOMA12011
CollinsvilleOKLAHOMA12013
WainwrightOKLAHOMA12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.