BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Swainson's Hawk In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Swainson's Hawk In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±348.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±348.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 75% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±348.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.62
20260.260.000.62
20270.260.000.62
20280.260.000.62
20290.260.000.62

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LocoOKLAHOMA31979
E GeorgetownTEXAS21977
OlneyTEXAS22022
WalburgTEXAS22018
Mount ZionTEXAS22004
YoakumTEXAS22019
DuranTEXAS21999
PaigeTEXAS22024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12011
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11968
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12001
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA11967
TatumsOKLAHOMA12006
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12022
DuncanOKLAHOMA12010
HobsonTEXAS11988
CampbelltonTEXAS12019
MuldoonTEXAS12018
LockhartTEXAS11983
Lone OakTEXAS12019
KosseTEXAS12018
OsageTEXAS11988
OlaTEXAS12006
DallasTEXAS12013
Glen RoseTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.