BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Swainson's Hawk In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesBirds of prey

Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Swainson's Hawk has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Swainson's Hawk In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 204% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±370%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+204%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±370%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 204% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±370%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.60
20270.250.000.61
20280.250.000.61
20290.250.000.61
20300.250.000.61

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Swainson's Hawk in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LocoOKLAHOMA31979
E GeorgetownTEXAS21977
OlneyTEXAS22022
WalburgTEXAS22018
Mount ZionTEXAS22004
YoakumTEXAS22019
BriteTEXAS22025
DuranTEXAS21999
PaigeTEXAS22024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12011
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11968
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12001
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA11967
TatumsOKLAHOMA12006
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12022
DuncanOKLAHOMA12010
HobsonTEXAS11988
CampbelltonTEXAS12019
MuldoonTEXAS12018
LockhartTEXAS11983
Lone OakTEXAS12019
KosseTEXAS12018
OsageTEXAS11988
OlaTEXAS12006
DallasTEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.