BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Song Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Song Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.9–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 9.9–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025159.321
2026159.421
2027159.621
2028169.722
2029169.922

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA622024
ZearingIOWA481995
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA402017
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA372024
OkleeMINNESOTA362021
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA342019
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA322011
NashNORTH-DAKOTA292017
GarnerIOWA281993
BeltramiMINNESOTA262024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA262009
HuntleyMINNESOTA252024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA252023
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA242024
Big StoneMINNESOTA232012
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA232024
BadgerMINNESOTA222018
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA222024
WylieMINNESOTA212024
GryglaMINNESOTA212017
ClevelandMONTANA212024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA212024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA212024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA202024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.