BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Song Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Song Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Song Sparrow has risen sharply in Prairie Potholes: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Song Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.5–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Song Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.5–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026158.921
2027159.121
2028159.221
2029159.321
2030159.521

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Song Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA512025
ZearingIOWA481995
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA402017
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA382025
OkleeMINNESOTA362021
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA342019
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA332025
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA322011
NashNORTH-DAKOTA292017
GarnerIOWA281993
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA262025
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA262009
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA252025
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA252023
Big StoneMINNESOTA232012
BurchinalIOWA222025
GlyndonMINNESOTA222025
BadgerMINNESOTA222018
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA222025
AppletonMINNESOTA212025
WylieMINNESOTA212024
GryglaMINNESOTA212017
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA212025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA212025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.