BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Snowy Egret In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Snowy Egret in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 641% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+641%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Snowy Egret has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 641% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Snowy Egret In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 207% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+207%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±174%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Snowy Egret in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 207% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.80). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.370.000.78
20260.380.000.78
20270.380.000.79
20280.390.000.79
20290.390.000.80

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Snowy Egret in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HenriettaTEXAS192022
NobleOKLAHOMA112021
Peach CreekTEXAS101985
SeldenTEXAS42007
WalburgTEXAS32024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS32019
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22022
Wolfe CityTEXAS21987
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11987
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12013
BeggsOKLAHOMA12011
SchroederTEXAS11984
HobsonTEXAS11983
CampbelltonTEXAS12019
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11981
LockhartTEXAS12021
Lone OakTEXAS11997
GauseTEXAS11996
Massey LakeTEXAS12016
OakwoodTEXAS11987
OlaTEXAS11984
DallasTEXAS12016
Glen RoseTEXAS12016
WeatherfordTEXAS12014
GrafordTEXAS12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.