BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-billed Gull In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Wetland birds

Short-billed Gull in BCR 4 has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-37%Since 1977
58Routes In Region
45Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Short-billed Gull in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-billed Gull in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.595% range
±159.8%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.004.7
20261.40.004.7
20271.40.004.6
20281.30.004.6
20291.30.004.5

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Short-billed Gull in BCR 4.
KalifonskyALASKA562023
HomerALASKA391982
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA221992
CottonwoodALASKA201990
WasillaALASKA101983
Tangle LakesALASKA101987
Anvik RiverALASKA102023
SavageALASKA62024
SlanaALASKA42022
ToklatALASKA42024
Seven LakesALASKA42015
Galena (Short)ALASKA42023
TonsinaALASKA32017
Lake LouiseALASKA32010
Nicholai SlALASKA32024
Porcupine R.ALASKA32002
KuskulanaALASKA31999
MonahanALASKA22019
CantwellALASKA22019
WillowALASKA22022
L SalchaALASKA22005
SourdoughALASKA22024
Bear CreekALASKA21991
CohoeALASKA22023
PetersvilleALASKA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.