BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Savannah Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 12–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±154.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+138%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±154.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 138% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 12–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±154.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201129
2026201129
2027201129
2028201129
2029211229

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OkleeMINNESOTA1162021
GryglaMINNESOTA982017
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA882016
ErieMINNESOTA812017
SunburstMONTANA792007
NashNORTH-DAKOTA652017
BadgerMINNESOTA552018
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA482012
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA462019
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA452011
WestbyMONTANA452024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA452009
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA442014
WylieMINNESOTA432024
RedstoneMONTANA352024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA322024
Hay LakeMONTANA292022
ShelbyMONTANA292024
BeltramiMINNESOTA282024
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA272013
WhitlashMONTANA242024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA242014
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA242017
LockhartMINNESOTA232024
LambertMONTANA232024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.