BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Savannah Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGrassland birds

Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+9%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Savannah Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 172% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 10–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+172%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±186.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 172% by 2030 — from 7.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 10–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±186.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026199.728
2027199.929
2028191029
2029201029
2030201029

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Savannah Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OkleeMINNESOTA1162021
GryglaMINNESOTA982017
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA882016
ErieMINNESOTA812017
SunburstMONTANA792007
NashNORTH-DAKOTA652017
BadgerMINNESOTA552018
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA482012
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA462019
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA452011
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA452009
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA442014
WylieMINNESOTA432024
WestbyMONTANA412025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA352025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA332025
BeltramiMINNESOTA322025
LockhartMINNESOTA302025
VirgelleMONTANA282025
ShelbyMONTANA272025
ParshallNORTH-DAKOTA272013
RedstoneMONTANA262025
WhitlashMONTANA242024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA242014
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA242017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.