BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sandhill Crane In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Sandhill Crane in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+200%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sandhill Crane has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.4–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.4–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.33.27.4
20265.43.27.5
20275.43.37.6
20285.53.47.6
20295.63.47.7

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Sandhill Crane in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils GardnFLORIDA282024
MabelFLORIDA212011
Pennywash CrFLORIDA182024
St LucieFLORIDA172024
RomeoFLORIDA162024
Punta GordaFLORIDA162012
Lake BuffumFLORIDA132024
Polk CityFLORIDA112024
KenansvilleFLORIDA112024
GardnerFLORIDA101999
San AntonioFLORIDA92024
IndiantownFLORIDA92017
Mabel 2FLORIDA82019
CroomFLORIDA82024
Sunniland GrFLORIDA72021
DeanvilleFLORIDA72019
NobletonFLORIDA72023
MicanopyFLORIDA61988
AlturasFLORIDA61986
Ft MccoyFLORIDA62024
AlvaFLORIDA62023
ArbuckleFLORIDA52019
PalmdaleFLORIDA52023
Citrus ParkFLORIDA52024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.