BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sandhill Crane In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Sandhill Crane in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-51%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sandhill Crane has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Sandhill Crane In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 275% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±278.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+275%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±278.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sandhill Crane in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 275% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±278.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.001.4
20260.410.001.4
20270.390.001.3
20280.380.001.3
20290.370.001.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Sandhill Crane in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA162011
GryglaMINNESOTA112017
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA112003
OkleeMINNESOTA82021
BeltramiMINNESOTA82023
ErieMINNESOTA72017
BadgerMINNESOTA72018
HartlandMINNESOTA42011
WylieMINNESOTA32024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA32023
CourtlandMINNESOTA22024
GluekMINNESOTA22015
GlyndonMINNESOTA22022
Great FallsMONTANA22013
Ester LakeMONTANA22022
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA22015
TitonkaIOWA12021
ClevelandMONTANA12024
ChinookMONTANA12019
SacoMONTANA12018
GlentanaMONTANA12024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA12016
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA11990
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA11995
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.