BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Peninsular Florida has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-tailed Hawk in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Red-tailed Hawk In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.05–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.05–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.060.74
20270.400.060.74
20280.400.060.74
20290.400.060.73
20300.390.050.73

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake BuffumFLORIDA62018
Myakka HeadFLORIDA42006
WebbFLORIDA42021
Winter GardnFLORIDA32018
Dale MabryFLORIDA21988
MabelFLORIDA22010
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22024
IndiantownFLORIDA22014
FlemingtonFLORIDA21997
ArbuckleFLORIDA22018
St LucieFLORIDA22025
AripekaFLORIDA22025
AlvaFLORIDA22017
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA22017
Vero BeachFLORIDA22021
Shawano 2FLORIDA22011
Green SwampFLORIDA22011
CitrusFLORIDA22023
ChassahowitzFLORIDA22024
MicanopyFLORIDA11991
RomeoFLORIDA12024
St AugustineFLORIDA12022
San AntonioFLORIDA12025
BelmoreFLORIDA12023
Polk CityFLORIDA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.