BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+238%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
162Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.22.1
20271.71.22.1
20281.71.32.1
20291.71.32.1
20301.71.32.1

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS132018
Osage BeachMISSOURI82025
SedaliaMISSOURI82025
RussellARKANSAS62021
McbrayerKENTUCKY62025
WrigleyTENNESSEE62022
WashingtonINDIANA52025
VevayINDIANA52024
KeysburgKENTUCKY52025
WhitewaterMISSOURI52025
LincolnMISSOURI52025
MillerMISSOURI52025
Belotes BendTENNESSEE52009
Ozark NfARKANSAS42005
BrownvilleILLINOIS42023
GraydonMISSOURI42025
Rueter 2MISSOURI42025
Carter GroveALABAMA32023
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS32025
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS32023
SanduskyILLINOIS32023
PimentoINDIANA32025
BrazilINDIANA32025
Indian SpgsINDIANA32023
New PhilaINDIANA32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.