BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+250%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
162Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.3–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.61.22.1
20261.71.22.1
20271.71.32.1
20281.71.32.1
20291.71.32.1

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS132018
CelestineINDIANA82024
RussellARKANSAS62021
WrigleyTENNESSEE62022
RoyaltonILLINOIS52024
VevayINDIANA52024
CascadeMISSOURI52024
SedaliaMISSOURI52024
Belotes BendTENNESSEE52009
Ozark NfARKANSAS42005
BrownvilleILLINOIS42023
NewberryINDIANA42024
KeysburgKENTUCKY42024
Rueter 2MISSOURI42024
GlenTENNESSEE42024
SwaimALABAMA32023
Wheeler DamALABAMA32023
Carter GroveALABAMA32023
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS32023
SanduskyILLINOIS32023
AzaliaINDIANA32024
Indian SpgsINDIANA32023
New PhilaINDIANA32023
CorydonINDIANA32024
GeorgiaINDIANA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.