BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.6–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.53.3
20272.41.53.4
20282.51.63.4
20292.51.63.4
20302.51.63.4

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peach CreekTEXAS71992
PaigeTEXAS62025
OlaTEXAS52025
WalburgTEXAS52025
TatumsOKLAHOMA42025
KosseTEXAS42023
RhomeTEXAS42025
HenriettaTEXAS42022
CarlosTEXAS42025
DecaturTEXAS42021
ChoctawOKLAHOMA32023
SkiatookOKLAHOMA32019
Arenosa CrkTEXAS32025
MuldoonTEXAS32025
Lone OakTEXAS32022
ThorntonTEXAS31984
SeldenTEXAS32025
HearneTEXAS32025
College StnTEXAS31990
CayugaTEXAS32024
Three RiversTEXAS32025
CreedmoreTEXAS32014
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA22025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.