BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 98% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-98%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 98% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.53
20270.030.000.52
20280.020.000.52
20290.010.000.51
20300.010.000.50

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vinton 2LOUISIANA42025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA31993
WinnieTEXAS22019
StowellTEXAS22012
Port AcresTEXAS22018
HackberryLOUISIANA12012
EstherLOUISIANA12008
RichardLOUISIANA12025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12024
Hinkles FerTEXAS11987
VanderbiltTEXAS11975
KatyTEXAS12017
Moon LakeTEXAS12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.