BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

37×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-headed Woodpecker In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.19–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.19–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.170.45
20260.320.180.46
20270.320.180.46
20280.330.190.47
20290.340.190.47

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HongaMARYLAND72024
CokesburyMARYLAND72024
MadisonMARYLAND62024
AlbionNEW-JERSEY31990
Port RoyalVIRGINIA32016
FrankfordDELAWARE22012
Pepperbox 2DELAWARE22024
Tall TimbersMARYLAND22001
HughesvilleMARYLAND22008
EastonMARYLAND21982
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND22016
BerlinMARYLAND22024
QuinbyVIRGINIA22018
TruhartVIRGINIA22023
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA22018
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT11988
HarringtonDELAWARE11967
HolleyvilleDELAWARE12000
MiltonDELAWARE12014
PepperboxDELAWARE12016
BeltsvilleMARYLAND11985
Broomes IslMARYLAND11987
La PlataMARYLAND11989
PomonkeyMARYLAND12003
PomfretMARYLAND12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.