BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
189Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has risen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.10–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.10–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.090.34
20270.210.090.34
20280.220.090.34
20290.220.100.34
20300.220.100.34

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WoodvilleALABAMA62024
WilliamsportMARYLAND62025
DresdenOHIO52025
SmootWEST-VIRGINIA52013
BirminghamALABAMA41995
DrummondALABAMA42024
WilgusOHIO42009
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA42025
RuthbelleWEST-VIRGINIA42025
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA42025
Pine GroveALABAMA32025
GreensportALABAMA32023
LakeviewALABAMA32025
ChoccoloccoALABAMA32025
RiversideALABAMA32013
LinwoodGEORGIA32019
MckeeKENTUCKY32025
Zaleski S.F.OHIO32024
Mohican S.F.OHIO32025
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA32025
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA32022
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA32025
HubbardstownWEST-VIRGINIA31983
SpencerWEST-VIRGINIA32013
Sunny EveALABAMA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.