BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
188Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.080.32
20260.200.090.33
20270.210.090.33
20280.210.090.33
20290.210.090.33

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilliamsportMARYLAND102024
WoodvilleALABAMA62024
MckeeKENTUCKY62023
DresdenOHIO52024
StonecreekOHIO52024
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA52023
SmootWEST-VIRGINIA52013
BirminghamALABAMA41995
DrummondALABAMA42024
WilgusOHIO42009
GreensportALABAMA32023
RiversideALABAMA32013
LinwoodGEORGIA32019
Zaleski S.F.OHIO32024
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA32022
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA32022
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA32024
HubbardstownWEST-VIRGINIA31983
SpencerWEST-VIRGINIA32013
Pine GroveALABAMA22022
Sunny EveALABAMA22024
Smyer LakeALABAMA22024
Mt OliveALABAMA22024
MaytownALABAMA22023
Borden SprngALABAMA21998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.