BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+171%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 171% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.38–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.38–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.392.7
20271.60.392.7
20281.60.392.7
20291.60.392.7
20301.60.382.7

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewberryINDIANA242025
Indian SpgsINDIANA152025
WilliamsvillMISSOURI152025
PimentoINDIANA112025
WhitewaterMISSOURI102025
YorkILLINOIS92025
BrazilINDIANA92025
AzaliaINDIANA82025
BoxvilleKENTUCKY81983
Bays ForkKENTUCKY82019
EugeneMISSOURI82025
Ozark NfARKANSAS72025
PulaskiILLINOIS72025
SpencerINDIANA72024
CumbackINDIANA72025
CelestineINDIANA72025
Clear SpringINDIANA72025
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY72024
AkersMISSOURI72025
Osage BeachMISSOURI72025
ScottsburgINDIANA62025
PetersburgTENNESSEE62012
BirdsILLINOIS52024
BremenILLINOIS52025
New PhilaINDIANA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.