BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+128%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
153Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.33–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.33–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.342.6
20261.50.342.6
20271.40.332.6
20281.40.332.6
20291.40.332.6

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YorkILLINOIS142024
NewberryINDIANA122024
WhitewaterMISSOURI102024
Indian SpgsINDIANA92024
PimentoINDIANA82024
BrazilINDIANA82024
GeorgiaINDIANA82024
BoxvilleKENTUCKY81983
Bays ForkKENTUCKY82019
PulaskiILLINOIS72024
SpencerINDIANA72024
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY72024
BennettMISSOURI62024
PetersburgTENNESSEE62012
BirdsILLINOIS52024
WashingtonINDIANA52024
CumbackINDIANA52004
PleasurevillKENTUCKY52024
PulaskiMISSOURI52024
Osage BeachMISSOURI52024
LincolnMISSOURI52024
WrigleyTENNESSEE52016
Union HillTENNESSEE52023
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS42024
Cave In RockILLINOIS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.