BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-headed Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-headed Woodpecker has fallen sharply in Prairie Potholes: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 98% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-98%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 98% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.002.3
20260.240.002.2
20270.170.002.2
20280.110.002.1
20290.040.002.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA442024
SpartaNEBRASKA242021
MidwayNEBRASKA212023
TildenNEBRASKA202024
PoncaNEBRASKA162024
WinsideNEBRASKA132003
PantherIOWA112024
MccallsburgIOWA82024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
ZearingIOWA71995
Winside 2NEBRASKA72022
MadisonNEBRASKA72019
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA52023
KanawhaIOWA42024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA42024
ScrantonIOWA32024
BadgerMINNESOTA32015
WorthingtonMINNESOTA32024
Wolf PointMONTANA32024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
WashingtonIOWA22024
GarnerIOWA21993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.