BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-headed Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Red-headed Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 94% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-94%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 94% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.002.5
20270.370.002.5
20280.310.002.4
20290.240.002.3
20300.180.002.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-headed Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MidwayNEBRASKA322025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA292025
SpartaNEBRASKA252025
TildenNEBRASKA202025
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA172025
MadisonNEBRASKA162025
WinsideNEBRASKA132003
PoncaNEBRASKA112025
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA82025
ZearingIOWA71995
ScrantonIOWA72025
Winside 2NEBRASKA72022
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA72025
KanawhaIOWA62025
MccallsburgIOWA62025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
HuntleyMINNESOTA52025
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA52023
TitonkaIOWA42025
BadgerMINNESOTA32015
WorthingtonMINNESOTA32025
FranklinMINNESOTA32025
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA32025
Wolf PointMONTANA32024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.