BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-eyed Vireo In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Red-eyed Vireo in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+429%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-eyed Vireo has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-eyed Vireo In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.13.2
20272.11.13.2
20282.21.13.2
20292.21.23.2
20302.21.23.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-eyed Vireo in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA642025
BadgerMINNESOTA152018
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA102025
ErieMINNESOTA82017
MidwayNEBRASKA82025
BeltramiMINNESOTA72025
GryglaMINNESOTA72017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA52025
MaynardMINNESOTA42015
LockhartMINNESOTA42025
ClareIOWA32019
MccallsburgIOWA32019
WylieMINNESOTA32023
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32025
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA32017
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22010
AppletonMINNESOTA22025
GluekMINNESOTA22016
GlyndonMINNESOTA22025
OkleeMINNESOTA22021
TracyMINNESOTA22024
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA22015
Big StoneMINNESOTA22009
PoncaNEBRASKA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.