BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-eyed Vireo In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Red-eyed Vireo in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+381%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-eyed Vireo has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-eyed Vireo in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 89% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.13.2
20262.21.13.2
20272.21.13.2
20282.21.23.3
20292.21.23.3

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-eyed Vireo in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA592024
BadgerMINNESOTA152018
ErieMINNESOTA82017
GryglaMINNESOTA72017
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62024
MaynardMINNESOTA42015
ClareIOWA32019
MccallsburgIOWA32019
BeltramiMINNESOTA32024
WylieMINNESOTA32023
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32024
MidwayNEBRASKA32023
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA32017
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22010
GluekMINNESOTA22016
ChokioMINNESOTA22004
OkleeMINNESOTA22021
TracyMINNESOTA22024
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA22015
Big StoneMINNESOTA22009
PoncaNEBRASKA22019
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA21977
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA21990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.