BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Red-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Rockies has surged: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+105%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Northern Rockies: up 105% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Nuthatch In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 3.5–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 3.5–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.23.39.2
20276.33.39.2
20286.33.49.3
20296.43.49.3
20306.43.59.4

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Red-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON532024
CoolinIDAHO482025
CusickWASHINGTON482025
WallowaOREGON442025
Twin LakesWASHINGTON332025
Howard Mdws.OREGON302025
Omak CreekWASHINGTON302024
MivodenIDAHO292025
DonnellyOREGON292006
OchocoOREGON282025
GrangevilleIDAHO252025
OchocoOREGON241982
Black Mtn.OREGON242004
Sullivan Lake 2WASHINGTON212025
Summit PrOREGON202025
Spring LakeWASHINGTON202025
Painted RockMONTANA192022
Hash RockOREGON192025
CloverlandWASHINGTON182025
BarnhouseOREGON172025
ChewelahWASHINGTON162021
NaplesIDAHO152025
St RegisMONTANA152025
SkalkahoMONTANA151998
TroyOREGON152025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.