BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 800% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+800%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 800% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 5.5–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 5.5–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.05.16.9
20276.15.27.0
20286.25.37.1
20296.35.47.2
20306.45.57.3

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA242025
ParisWISCONSIN222025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN212025
ViroquaWISCONSIN182024
CohoctahMICHIGAN172025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA172025
N AndoverWISCONSIN172025
WiotaWISCONSIN162025
EsdaileWISCONSIN152025
N FreedomWISCONSIN152025
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN152025
NashvilleMICHIGAN142025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA142025
MerideanWISCONSIN142024
GuilfordILLINOIS132023
GalesburgMICHIGAN132025
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN132025
MottvilleMICHIGAN122025
FowlervilleMICHIGAN122019
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN122025
PackertownINDIANA112004
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN112025
AlmenaMICHIGAN102015
LawrenceMICHIGAN92025
St StephenMINNESOTA92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.