BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 5.4–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 5.4–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.45.29.6
20267.55.29.7
20277.55.39.8
20287.65.49.8
20297.75.49.9

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA222009
PaigeTEXAS162024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA142024
MuldoonTEXAS122024
SadlerTEXAS122024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA112018
LocoOKLAHOMA101985
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA102024
BeggsOKLAHOMA102023
Massey LakeTEXAS102024
NobleOKLAHOMA92024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS92024
CayugaTEXAS92024
Thornton 2TEXAS92010
ChoctawOKLAHOMA82023
Arenosa CrkTEXAS82024
Oak GroveTEXAS81999
BurtonTEXAS82024
DecaturTEXAS82024
OlaTEXAS72024
Glen RoseTEXAS72024
SeldenTEXAS72024
HearneTEXAS72024
MegargelTEXAS72022
SkiatookOKLAHOMA62019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.