BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+146%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.17–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.17–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.150.52
20270.340.150.52
20280.340.160.53
20290.350.160.54
20300.350.170.54

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TildenNEBRASKA82025
PantherIOWA42025
HartlandMINNESOTA32013
HuntleyMINNESOTA32025
AppletonMINNESOTA32025
TracyMINNESOTA32025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32022
PoncaNEBRASKA32025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32025
WashingtonIOWA22025
TitonkaIOWA22025
MccallsburgIOWA22024
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22025
DawsonMINNESOTA22023
FairmontMINNESOTA22025
MidwayNEBRASKA22025
KanawhaIOWA12017
ZearingIOWA11994
ScrantonIOWA12025
ClareIOWA12019
GarnerIOWA11990
BurchinalIOWA12008
ChandlerMINNESOTA12023
CourtlandMINNESOTA12025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.