BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+129%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-bellied Woodpecker has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 129% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-bellied Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.16–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.16–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.140.48
20260.320.140.49
20270.320.150.49
20280.330.150.50
20290.330.160.50

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-bellied Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantherIOWA82024
CourtlandMINNESOTA72024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA72024
TracyMINNESOTA42024
ScrantonIOWA32023
HartlandMINNESOTA32013
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA32022
MccallsburgIOWA22024
DawsonMINNESOTA22023
AppletonMINNESOTA22023
MidwayNEBRASKA22023
WashingtonIOWA12024
KanawhaIOWA12017
ZearingIOWA11994
ClareIOWA12019
GarnerIOWA11990
TitonkaIOWA12024
BurchinalIOWA12008
HuntleyMINNESOTA12024
ChandlerMINNESOTA12023
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12024
Redwood FallMINNESOTA12014
MaynardMINNESOTA12015
ChokioMINNESOTA12019
TenneyMINNESOTA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.