BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-37%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.000.70
20270.230.000.69
20280.220.000.68
20290.220.000.68
20300.210.000.67

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Purple Martin in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ComstockTEXAS92025
LongfellowTEXAS62023
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO22025
PinonNEW-MEXICO22003
GirvinTEXAS21979
Devils R CynTEXAS22023
RodeoNEW-MEXICO11984
AltudaTEXAS12011
OzonaTEXAS11996
PumpvilleTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.