BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Peninsular Florida has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 9.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 9.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.00.0011
20264.90.0011
20274.80.0011
20284.80.0011
20294.70.0011

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Purple Martin in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 2FLORIDA5522011
Holey LandFLORIDA2742024
ShawanoFLORIDA522000
NobletonFLORIDA322024
SandyFLORIDA302015
MicanopyFLORIDA261991
Dale MabryFLORIDA211988
SalvistaFLORIDA131979
RomeoFLORIDA112024
KendallFLORIDA111991
Mt. OliveFLORIDA102024
KissimmeeFLORIDA92021
Island GroveFLORIDA92024
CorbettFLORIDA82022
IndiantownFLORIDA72009
RedlandsFLORIDA72024
WebbFLORIDA72024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA62003
St AugustineFLORIDA62024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA62022
MabelFLORIDA52011
GardnerFLORIDA51999
Sandy 2FLORIDA52024
Winter GardnFLORIDA42019
PalmdaleFLORIDA42021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.