BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Martin In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 10.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 13 (95% range 10.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.415
2026129.615
2027129.715
2028129.815
20291310.015

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Purple Martin in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarringtonDELAWARE1182024
CokesburyMARYLAND1022024
BlackbirdDELAWARE912024
FredericaDELAWARE882014
MadisonMARYLAND722024
HarmonyMARYLAND682017
Milton 2DELAWARE592017
HongaMARYLAND592024
MatthewsMARYLAND562024
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY482024
GeorgetownDELAWARE462022
PepperboxDELAWARE362016
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY362024
MillsboroDELAWARE332024
IndiantownMARYLAND322014
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY322013
Forest GroveMARYLAND302023
FrankfordDELAWARE262012
MiltonDELAWARE262016
Holleyville 2DELAWARE262024
Broomes IslMARYLAND251996
NewarkMARYLAND252024
MarionMASSACHUSETTS252024
Bethany BchDELAWARE241990
MelitotaMARYLAND242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.