BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
275Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Purple Martin In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.002.6
20271.10.002.5
20281.10.002.5
20291.00.002.5
20301.00.002.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Purple Martin in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DresdenOHIO472025
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA412025
DearmanvilleALABAMA371980
ClinchportVIRGINIA341978
LakeviewALABAMA332025
Peters MtPENNSYLVANIA271976
SummittALABAMA251981
WallandTENNESSEE251987
WoodvilleALABAMA242024
Amos MillGEORGIA242022
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA242025
Signal MtnTENNESSEE232025
OakmanGEORGIA202024
WilgusOHIO202009
LovellTENNESSEE202019
JasperALABAMA181999
RiversideALABAMA172013
Jonas RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA161971
GarrettPENNSYLVANIA162025
TalladegaALABAMA152025
KeeneOHIO152023
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA152025
East JavaNEW-YORK141973
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA142025
GreensportALABAMA132025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.