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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Purple Martin In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Purple Martin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Purple Martin In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.50.0015
20276.30.0015
20286.00.0015
20295.70.0014
20305.50.0014

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Purple Martin in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CypressLOUISIANA1371987
NatchitochesLOUISIANA1081991
IndianolaOKLAHOMA872025
MarionLOUISIANA621996
EastonLOUISIANA591990
ManyLOUISIANA561992
ChandlerTEXAS512004
LinvilleLOUISIANA482025
LongstreetLOUISIANA442025
Ivan 2LOUISIANA392025
CartervilleLOUISIANA371992
ClayLOUISIANA342025
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA311997
DerryLOUISIANA301989
WechesTEXAS302025
Lake CoveLOUISIANA292018
Fort PolkLOUISIANA271975
MassardARKANSAS262021
PhillipsOKLAHOMA262008
CrossroadsTEXAS242025
Derry 2LOUISIANA232025
MortonTEXAS222025
MatoyOKLAHOMA212025
Town BluffTEXAS212025
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA202021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.