BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Oaks and Prairies has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has risen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.1–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.1–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025124.719
2026124.820
2027124.920
2028125.020
2029125.120

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Purple Martin in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HenriettaTEXAS582022
DuranTEXAS521999
RhomeTEXAS372024
YoakumTEXAS362024
HobsonTEXAS312024
OakwoodTEXAS301995
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA222009
SchroederTEXAS221997
DikeTEXAS222024
DecaturTEXAS212024
Massey LakeTEXAS202024
FanninTEXAS192023
Three RiversTEXAS182024
CarlosTEXAS162024
Blue RidgeTEXAS162024
Oak GroveTEXAS151999
LockhartTEXAS142024
Wolfe CityTEXAS141987
WalburgTEXAS132024
GreenvilleTEXAS112024
Peach CreekTEXAS101992
WeatherfordTEXAS102024
College StnTEXAS101990
BriteTEXAS102024
Lone OakTEXAS92019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.