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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Martin In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauAerial insectivores

Purple Martin in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 391% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+391%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Martin has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 391% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Purple Martin In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 3.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Martin in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 3.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.53.010
20266.63.010
20276.63.110
20286.73.110
20296.73.210

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Purple Martin in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeorgetownTEXAS191985
ManorTEXAS182024
LeanderTEXAS162006
Pidcoke 2TEXAS142024
HarperTEXAS122024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS112024
Dripping SpgTEXAS92024
AdamsvilleTEXAS82024
RockspringTEXAS82022
UtopiaTEXAS42024
KempnerTEXAS42024
FitzhughTEXAS21983
Indian MtnTEXAS22018
LeakeyTEXAS22024
BoerneTEXAS12023
Valley SpgsTEXAS12024
San SabaTEXAS12022
PidcokeTEXAS12017
MontellTEXAS12018
Allen CreekTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.