BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Purple Gallinule In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Purple Gallinule in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-73%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Purple Gallinule has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Purple Gallinule In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Purple Gallinule in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Purple Gallinule in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.21
20250.000.000.21
20260.000.000.21
20270.000.000.21
20280.000.000.21

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Purple Gallinule in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holey LandFLORIDA102012
MicanopyFLORIDA21977
PalmdaleFLORIDA22008
Mabel 2FLORIDA22017
Myakka HeadFLORIDA12009
MabelFLORIDA11999
IndiantownFLORIDA12006
BrowardFLORIDA11969
Plantation KFLORIDA11974
AndytownFLORIDA11989
NobletonFLORIDA11988
SandyFLORIDA11998
St LucieFLORIDA11987
ShawanoFLORIDA11994
HomesteadFLORIDA12015
ClewistonFLORIDA12022
Lake BuffumFLORIDA12007
WebbFLORIDA12023
Wildernes PkFLORIDA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.