BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pied-billed Grebe In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pied-billed Grebe has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pied-billed Grebe In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±685.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±685.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.06 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±685.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.001.1
20240.000.001.1
20250.000.001.1
20260.000.001.1
20270.000.001.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils GardnFLORIDA41996
Winter GardnFLORIDA32007
SandyFLORIDA31996
WebbFLORIDA31991
Holey LandFLORIDA32009
ScottsmoorFLORIDA21990
Sunniland GrFLORIDA21969
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22005
KenansvilleFLORIDA22003
SalvistaFLORIDA21971
TamiamiFLORIDA21974
FlemingtonFLORIDA21993
Lake BuffumFLORIDA22005
Punta GordaFLORIDA21980
CorbettFLORIDA22012
RomeoFLORIDA11995
St AugustineFLORIDA11967
San AntonioFLORIDA12004
BelmoreFLORIDA11971
MabelFLORIDA12005
ChildsFLORIDA12000
PinecrestFLORIDA11970
AlturasFLORIDA11986
IndiantownFLORIDA12003
BrowardFLORIDA11969

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.