BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Peregrine Falcon Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Peregrine Falcon in Washington has surged: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+196%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Peregrine Falcon Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Peregrine Falcon in Washington. See the full index history below.

Peregrine Falcon Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.01–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.07
20260.040.000.07
20270.040.000.07
20280.040.010.07
20290.040.010.07

Peregrine Falcon Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Peregrine Falcon in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wapato320222021
Port Angeles120142014
Ronald120222012
Bay View119961994
Omak Creek120142014
Selah120152015
Packwood120172017
Moses Coulee120092006
Moses Lake120142014
Rainier120182018
Carnation120111991
Yakima120242023
Lake Chelan120222022
Rimrock120162003
Mcchord120052005
Raymond120102010
Glacier120242024

Peregrine Falcon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoindianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.