BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Peregrine Falcon Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Peregrine Falcon in Alaska has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

+48%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Peregrine Falcon Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Peregrine Falcon in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Peregrine Falcon Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Peregrine Falcon in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.010.11
20260.060.010.11
20270.060.010.11
20280.060.010.11
20290.060.010.11

Peregrine Falcon Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Peregrine Falcon in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Northway220192016
Eagle120142010
Slana120051999
Tower Bluffs120102010
Maclaren120132013
Monahan119971997
Cantwell120172017
Cape Nome120122004
Unalakleet River120062006
Happy Valley120231996
Haines120242024
Hather Creek120151996
Kanuti Canyn120171999
Mcgrath120222019
Manley Ht Sp120212021
Teller120032003
Porcupine R.119981998
Anvik River120221999
Sheep Mtn120112011
Kanuti Lake120212015
Cold Bay120052005
King Salmon120042004
Chicken120222022

Peregrine Falcon Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoindianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.