BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Olive-sided Flycatcher In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Aerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in BCR 4 has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+25%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.14.1
20272.61.14.0
20282.61.14.0
20292.61.14.0
20302.51.14.0

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanuti LakeALASKA202024
Nicholai SlALASKA132025
Swan Lake RdALASKA102025
Bear CreekALASKA91991
L SalchaALASKA82023
ColdfootALASKA82021
EagleALASKA62025
CircleALASKA62025
Chatanika RALASKA62024
NorthwayALASKA62023
Goose BayALASKA61982
KalifonskyALASKA62023
Unalakleet RiverALASKA62024
Skilak LakeALASKA51985
TonsinaALASKA52021
Seven LakesALASKA52025
Burma RoadALASKA52025
Manley Ht SpALASKA52022
Anvik RiverALASKA52022
HomerALASKA41982
Kanuti CanynALASKA42024
McgrathALASKA42022
Moose CreekALASKA42022
Mt. FairplayALASKA42025
Galena (Short)ALASKA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.