BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Waterthrush In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 546% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+546%Since 1981
5Routes In Region
38Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Waterthrush has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 546% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.38–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029
0.60Projected 2029 index
0.38–0.8395% range
±27.2%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.560.340.79
20260.570.350.80
20270.580.360.81
20280.590.370.82
20290.600.380.83

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Prairie Potholes.
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA312024
ErieMINNESOTA21989
OkleeMINNESOTA11982
BadgerMINNESOTA12000
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.