BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 38–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
38–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 38–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026513765
2027513765
2028513865
2029523865
2030523866

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MamouLOUISIANA1191982
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA762025
HackberryLOUISIANA682016
Loyola BeachTEXAS682009
KatyTEXAS652025
VanderbiltTEXAS631976
LafitteLOUISIANA611991
StowellTEXAS612025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS602025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA542019
Oyster LakeTEXAS522025
IndianolaTEXAS512024
MauriceLOUISIANA502024
McfaddinTEXAS502016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS492016
Rock IslandTEXAS482025
Bayside 3TEXAS452025
Vinton 2LOUISIANA442025
ChinquapinTEXAS432025
EstherLOUISIANA402025
DanburyTEXAS402025
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA382011
KaplanLOUISIANA372023
JuniorLOUISIANA341991
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA332011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.