BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+0%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 39–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
39–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 53 (95% range 39–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025523965
2026523965
2027523966
2028533966
2029533966

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MamouLOUISIANA1191982
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA782024
HackberryLOUISIANA682016
Loyola BeachTEXAS682009
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS682024
StowellTEXAS662023
KatyTEXAS642024
VanderbiltTEXAS631976
LafitteLOUISIANA611991
Oyster LakeTEXAS592024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA542019
DanburyTEXAS542024
ChinquapinTEXAS532024
Port AcresTEXAS532024
EstherLOUISIANA512024
IndianolaTEXAS512024
MauriceLOUISIANA502024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS502023
McfaddinTEXAS502016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS492016
Rock IslandTEXAS472024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS452024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA382011
WinnieTEXAS382024
KaplanLOUISIANA372023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.