BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 38 (95% range 15–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 38 (95% range 15–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025401763
2026391662
2027391662
2028381562
2029381561

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO1432021
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO1152017
ValentineTEXAS1061987
PumpvilleTEXAS892024
Devils R CynTEXAS882024
Casa PiedraTEXAS832023
Ft. DavisTEXAS832023
LangtryTEXAS822000
QueenNEW-MEXICO752021
Bear MtnTEXAS732024
Delaware CrkTEXAS702015
MarfaTEXAS682024
ComstockTEXAS592023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO562023
Coyanda DrawTEXAS522024
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO492023
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO481977
MarathonTEXAS482023
ShafterTEXAS471985
LongfellowTEXAS462024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS462009
PresidioTEXAS432023
Chisos BasinTEXAS402024
ToyahvaleTEXAS392024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS392024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.