BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 37 (95% range 15–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 37 (95% range 15–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026391662
2027391662
2028381661
2029381561
2030371560

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO1432021
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO1152017
Devils R CynTEXAS1082025
ValentineTEXAS1061987
PumpvilleTEXAS982025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS952025
LangtryTEXAS822000
MarfaTEXAS822025
GirvinTEXAS792025
QueenNEW-MEXICO752021
Delaware CrkTEXAS702015
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS702025
Bear MtnTEXAS642025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO622025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO612025
Ozona 2TEXAS582025
Casa PiedraTEXAS542025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO481977
ShafterTEXAS471985
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS462009
MarathonTEXAS462025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO422025
ComstockTEXAS422025
ToyahvaleTEXAS422025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO372025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.