BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.9–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.9–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.615
2026117.415
2027117.215
2028117.015
2029116.914

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fair HillMARYLAND561996
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY462024
LargoMARYLAND431981
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY432012
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY421977
Grove NeckMARYLAND401996
HolleyvilleDELAWARE392004
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY391970
MelitotaMARYLAND382024
Forest GroveMARYLAND372023
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY372013
QuinbyVIRGINIA372024
Holleyville 2DELAWARE362024
JonesMARYLAND361994
Pt RepublicMARYLAND361989
Piney NeckMARYLAND362024
CokesburyMARYLAND352024
CheltenhamMARYLAND342004
Jones BeachNEW-YORK342013
HarringtonDELAWARE312024
RobbinsvilleNEW-JERSEY311979
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA312018
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE301991
HarmonyMARYLAND302017
MillingtonMARYLAND292024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.