BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 6.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.7–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 10 (95% range 6.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.415
2027117.215
2028117.015
2029116.914
2030106.714

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fair HillMARYLAND561996
LargoMARYLAND431981
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY432012
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY421977
HarringtonDELAWARE412025
Grove NeckMARYLAND401996
HolleyvilleDELAWARE392004
MasonvilleNEW-JERSEY391970
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY392025
Forest GroveMARYLAND372023
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY372013
Holleyville 2DELAWARE362024
JonesMARYLAND361994
Pt RepublicMARYLAND361989
CheltenhamMARYLAND342004
Jones BeachNEW-YORK342013
CokesburyMARYLAND322025
QuinbyVIRGINIA322025
RobbinsvilleNEW-JERSEY311979
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA312018
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE301991
HarmonyMARYLAND302017
Tall TimbersMARYLAND282014
FruitlandMARYLAND281998
Island CreekMARYLAND282025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.