BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
345Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.8 (95% range 3.9–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.8 (95% range 3.9–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.94.07.7
20275.84.07.7
20285.84.07.6
20295.83.97.6
20305.83.97.6

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BirminghamALABAMA781995
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE572011
LovellTENNESSEE562019
Corryton RdTENNESSEE562019
WilliamsportMARYLAND542025
ClimerTENNESSEE542004
BlacksburgVIRGINIA532025
TradeALABAMA402024
Pine GroveALABAMA402025
DrummondALABAMA402024
ShannonGEORGIA402019
LakeviewALABAMA392025
StevensonALABAMA392024
TalladegaALABAMA372025
BrooksvilleALABAMA352025
ChoccoloccoALABAMA352025
Mt OliveTENNESSEE352024
DearmanvilleALABAMA331983
Star TanneryVIRGINIA332025
Mt OliveALABAMA322025
OdenvilleALABAMA322025
SummittALABAMA301981
LinwoodGEORGIA302023
Greasy RidgeOHIO301991
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA282025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.