BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 13–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 18 (95% range 13–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191424
2026191424
2027191324
2028181324
2029181323

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PocolaOKLAHOMA952016
MatoyOKLAHOMA872000
ChandlerTEXAS772004
SandbluffOKLAHOMA681995
CypressLOUISIANA661987
SmyrnaTEXAS632010
PhillipsOKLAHOMA582008
IndianolaOKLAHOMA572024
Fort PolkLOUISIANA541975
DibollTEXAS532024
FillmoreLOUISIANA481989
DerryLOUISIANA461989
ManyLOUISIANA461992
Coal HillARKANSAS412023
Chandler 2TEXAS382024
LongstreetLOUISIANA372024
ChathamLOUISIANA351975
ClayLOUISIANA352024
CanadianOKLAHOMA352017
AthensTEXAS342024
LivingstonTEXAS332024
MortonTEXAS332024
CrossroadsTEXAS332024
IvanLOUISIANA322013
EastonLOUISIANA311990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.