BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 13–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 13–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191424
2027191324
2028181324
2029181323
2030181323

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PocolaOKLAHOMA952016
ChandlerTEXAS772004
CypressLOUISIANA661987
SmyrnaTEXAS632010
Fort PolkLOUISIANA541975
IndianolaOKLAHOMA512025
FillmoreLOUISIANA481989
PhillipsOKLAHOMA482025
DerryLOUISIANA461989
ManyLOUISIANA461992
SandbluffOKLAHOMA442025
MatoyOKLAHOMA442025
Coal HillARKANSAS412023
Easton 2TEXAS402025
Chandler 2TEXAS382024
ChathamLOUISIANA351975
CanadianOKLAHOMA352017
LivingstonTEXAS352025
MortonTEXAS352025
LongstreetLOUISIANA342025
Liberty HillTEXAS342025
Mt. SelmanTEXAS332025
IvanLOUISIANA322013
DibollTEXAS322025
AthensTEXAS322025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.