BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.2 (95% range 4.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.2 (95% range 4.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.94.815
20269.74.615
20279.64.415
20289.44.315
20299.24.114

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE692024
HillsboroALABAMA491996
Carter GroveALABAMA362023
CollinwoodTENNESSEE362024
AvocaARKANSAS352024
CourtlandALABAMA322023
TullahomaTENNESSEE322015
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA312014
RussellARKANSAS302021
GlenTENNESSEE302024
KeysburgKENTUCKY282024
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY282024
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE282019
ElkmontALABAMA272024
FarwellARKANSAS272018
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS262015
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY262024
White HouseTENNESSEE262019
PetersburgTENNESSEE252019
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA242010
HudsonKENTUCKY242024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY242019
CentertonARKANSAS232024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY231998
MerrimacKENTUCKY232024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.