BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 4.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 4.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.84.715
20279.64.515
20289.44.415
20299.34.214
20309.14.114

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE722025
HillsboroALABAMA491996
Carter GroveALABAMA362023
ElkmontALABAMA352025
AvocaARKANSAS352024
Wheeler DamALABAMA342025
CentertonARKANSAS342025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE332025
CourtlandALABAMA322023
TullahomaTENNESSEE322015
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA312014
New PhilaINDIANA312025
RussellARKANSAS302021
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY282025
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE282019
SwaimALABAMA272025
FarwellARKANSAS272018
GlenTENNESSEE272025
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS262015
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY262024
HudsonKENTUCKY262025
White HouseTENNESSEE262019
PetersburgTENNESSEE252019
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA242010
Bays ForkKENTUCKY242019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.