BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+443%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.27
20260.130.000.28
20270.140.000.28
20280.140.000.28
20290.140.000.28

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N BaltimoreOHIO102019
MiddleburyINDIANA92024
South BendINDIANA81984
KnoxINDIANA62024
LakevilleINDIANA42023
LagrangeINDIANA42024
BismarkOHIO31993
AdrianMICHIGAN22017
LimestoneOHIO22023
KewannaINDIANA12019
Columbia CtyINDIANA12022
PackertownINDIANA12004
EllisINDIANA12009
Packertown 2INDIANA12014
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11993
LawrenceMICHIGAN12009
New TroyMICHIGAN11976
BeldingMICHIGAN11993
GalesburgMICHIGAN12024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN12007
MontereyMICHIGAN12009
RemusMICHIGAN12002
MottvilleMICHIGAN12008
PrattvilleMICHIGAN11987
PettysvilleMICHIGAN11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.