BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 447% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+447%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.28
20270.140.000.28
20280.140.000.28
20290.140.000.28
20300.140.000.28

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N BaltimoreOHIO102019
MiddleburyINDIANA92024
South BendINDIANA81984
LagrangeINDIANA82025
KnoxINDIANA72025
LakevilleINDIANA42023
BismarkOHIO31993
AdrianMICHIGAN22017
LimestoneOHIO22025
KewannaINDIANA12019
Columbia CtyINDIANA12022
PackertownINDIANA12004
EllisINDIANA12009
Packertown 2INDIANA12014
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11993
LawrenceMICHIGAN12009
New TroyMICHIGAN11976
BeldingMICHIGAN11993
GalesburgMICHIGAN12024
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN12007
MontereyMICHIGAN12009
RemusMICHIGAN12002
MottvilleMICHIGAN12008
PrattvilleMICHIGAN11987
PettysvilleMICHIGAN11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.