BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 28–59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
28–5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 28–59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025442960
2026442960
2027442959
2028442859
2029432859

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS1112024
SchroederTEXAS901997
RhomeTEXAS882024
CreedmoreTEXAS882014
OakwoodTEXAS871995
HobsonTEXAS722024
Oak GroveTEXAS681999
HenriettaTEXAS642022
Mount ZionTEXAS642024
CarlosTEXAS622024
GauseTEXAS581997
DuranTEXAS581999
Massey LakeTEXAS572024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS502024
FanninTEXAS492023
Blue RidgeTEXAS482024
Arenosa CrkTEXAS472024
DallasTEXAS472024
CayugaTEXAS472024
ThorntonTEXAS461984
Lone OakTEXAS442022
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA422009
MuldoonTEXAS422024
DikeTEXAS422024
WalburgTEXAS422024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.