BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 27–58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 27–58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026442859
2027432859
2028432858
2029432758
2030422758

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SchroederTEXAS901997
CreedmoreTEXAS882014
OakwoodTEXAS871995
Three RiversTEXAS762025
Mount ZionTEXAS732025
RhomeTEXAS692025
Oak GroveTEXAS681999
CarlosTEXAS652025
HobsonTEXAS642025
HenriettaTEXAS642022
FanninTEXAS622025
Massey LakeTEXAS592025
DikeTEXAS592025
GauseTEXAS581997
DuranTEXAS581999
HearneTEXAS542025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS532025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS522025
MuldoonTEXAS492025
WalburgTEXAS482025
BriteTEXAS482025
BurtonTEXAS472025
ThorntonTEXAS461984
Lone OakTEXAS442022
Miller GroveTEXAS402025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.