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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 24 (95% range 3.6–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 24 (95% range 3.6–44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025288.048
2026276.947
2027265.846
2028254.745
2029243.644

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeorgetownTEXAS851985
San SabaTEXAS612024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS532024
FitzhughTEXAS471983
ManorTEXAS472024
HarperTEXAS332024
LeanderTEXAS322006
Valley SpgsTEXAS302024
Dripping SpgTEXAS282024
PidcokeTEXAS252017
KempnerTEXAS222024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS212024
BoerneTEXAS172024
MontellTEXAS162024
LeakeyTEXAS152024
AdamsvilleTEXAS112024
UtopiaTEXAS102024
Indian MtnTEXAS102024
Allen CreekTEXAS82024
RockspringTEXAS82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.