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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Edwards Plateau has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Edwards Plateau: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Mockingbird In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 2.3–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 2.3–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026276.647
2027265.646
2028254.545
2029233.443
2030222.342

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeorgetownTEXAS851985
Manor 2TEXAS532025
San SabaTEXAS512025
FitzhughTEXAS471983
ManorTEXAS472024
AdamsvilleTEXAS402025
HarperTEXAS342025
Dripping SpgTEXAS322025
LeanderTEXAS322006
Pidcoke 2TEXAS292025
PidcokeTEXAS252017
Valley SpgsTEXAS222025
KempnerTEXAS192025
UtopiaTEXAS162025
BoerneTEXAS142025
MontellTEXAS112025
Indian MtnTEXAS102025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS102025
Allen CreekTEXAS92025
RockspringTEXAS92025
LeakeyTEXAS62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.