BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+117%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 117% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Northern Mockingbird In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.44
20260.110.000.43
20270.100.000.43
20280.100.000.42
20290.090.000.42

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE102007
New HartfordCONNECTICUT91987
TurnerMAINE62002
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS61992
BiddefordMAINE52018
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS51994
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE42001
Otisfield GrMAINE32008
Bowdoin CtrMAINE31993
Forest StaMAINE31984
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE32008
WestbrookMAINE22017
DebloisMAINE21991
CambridgeMAINE21997
CornvilleMAINE22024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS22006
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE22010
S ReadingVERMONT22003
Post MillsVERMONT22001
East HavenVERMONT21988
New HartfordCONNECTICUT12006
BethelMAINE11999
GreenwoodMAINE11976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.