BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Northern House Wren in Great Basin has surged: up 390% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+390%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
171Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Great Basin: up 390% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Great Basin is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.9–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Great Basin is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.9–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.75.8
20264.32.75.8
20274.32.85.9
20284.42.86.0
20294.42.96.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnes ValOREGON541987
Magic MtnIDAHO522024
TwispWASHINGTON402024
Turnbull NwrWASHINGTON352023
EwanWASHINGTON342019
Iron GateCALIFORNIA332019
EllensburgWASHINGTON292024
JoelIDAHO282024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON252024
JarbidgeNEVADA232015
SquirrelIDAHO212024
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON212024
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA192019
PomeroyWASHINGTON182024
GiffordIDAHO162017
Gardnerville 2NEVADA162018
MacdoelCALIFORNIA152019
Badger CreekOREGON152024
ReardanWASHINGTON142024
HackamoreCALIFORNIA122010
LeavenworthWASHINGTON122024
YakimaWASHINGTON122024
SnowdenWASHINGTON112024
WaitsburgWASHINGTON112004
Modoc PointOREGON102018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.